Russia will hold another presidential election in March 2024. Given the totalitarian reality of Russia, there is no doubt that Putin will be re-elected for another 6 years, and that this will herald a period of geopolitical turbulence for Europe.
Holding such elections in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine is a challenge for the West and a gross violation of the principles of international law.
The Venice Commission’s 2019 conclusion on the illegitimacy of the 2016 election of deputies to the Russian State Duma held in Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories demonstrated the international community’s strong condemnation of such illegal and criminal actions by Russia. But, the Kremlin still intends to repeat the same offence again: the presidential elections scheduled for next March will be held, among others, in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
Ukrainians living under Russian occupation will be subjected to pressure and repression to force them to vote for Putin. A parallel can be drawn with the so-called “pseudo-referenda” held by Russia in September 2022 in the occupied territories of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine. These events were held “at gunpoint” and with a predetermined result – the Kremlin only needed phoney PR to support their propaganda objectives. Ukrainians living under occupation were forced to succumb to intimidation and psychological pressure: they were forced to vote in these referenda for fear of punishment and losing their jobs and pensions.
Holding presidential elections in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine pursues another important goal for Putin. He is seeking to legitimise the Russian presence in Ukraine. For the same purpose, so-called “international observers” from Kremlin sympathisers will be present at the elections. They are an important element in the phoney PR toolkit as they seek to legitimise the Russian presence in Ukraine. It is also an important goal for Putin to stage manage a phoney rejection of part of the territory of a sovereign European state. This would represent a challenge to Western security and an attack on the inviolability of borders in Europe, as defined by the Helsinki Act of 1975. Russia is being closely watched by other dictatorships, and they will follow the same playbook if the West ignores this Kremlin offence and fails to take decisive and effective action to punish the terrorist state.
Russia’s holding of illegal elections in the temporarily occupied territories violates the UN Charter of Paris and Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. No elected body or elected office of the Russian Federation that may be elected in the temporarily occupied territories can be recognised as legitimate. Putin has become a threat not only to world democracy: but he is trying to change the existing world order by the blatant imperial invasion and seizure of territory.
The international community should not recognise the results of the presidential election of the Russian Federation in Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories. Personal sanctions should be imposed on the organisers of the illegal elections in Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories, and the international isolation of the Kremlin should increase.
A resolute response is needed to reject Russia’s systematic violations of the principles of international law.
