Photo by Janosch Diggelmann on Unsplash
As Russia’s war in Ukraine drags into its fourth year without any military conclusion, the Kremlin is intensifying efforts on another front – not military, but political, psychological, and humanitarian. One of the most concerning tools in this unbalanced arsenal is the weaponisation of irregular migration.
Instead of tanks, Moscow now employs boats filled with desperate people to destabilise Europe from within – aiming to fracture EU unity, undermine public trust in democratic institutions, and divert Western governments’ attention from their support for Ukraine.
This tactic is not entirely new, but the scale and precision of its implementation in recent years indicate a shift in Moscow’s broader strategy. Since 2023, Russia has expanded its influence along key migration routes in Africa, particularly in Libya, Mali, Sudan, and Niger. Through the Wagner Group (now rebranded as the “Africa Corps”), Russian operatives have gained effective control over extensive transit corridors stretching from the Sahel to the Mediterranean.
Eastern Libya, particularly from Tobruk to Benghazi, has become a key staging area. In coordination with Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar, Russian forces have helped establish maritime routes from Libya’s coast to southern Europe. According to Frontex data, over 90% of migrants arriving by sea to Italy in 2025 come from areas with a documented Russian paramilitary presence or influence.
It’s not just about geography – it’s about strategy. Moscow has learned to manipulate the conditions that drive displacement: supporting authoritarian regimes, stoking regional conflicts, and creating insecurity. Then, using networks of local traffickers, these human flows are redirected to serve Kremlin interests – often in response to political shifts in Brussels, Berlin, or Paris.
For instance, following new EU sanctions against Russia or public declarations of increased support for Kyiv, intelligence reports show a noticeable rise in boats leaving Libyan shores. These surges are not accidental – they are coordinated responses, aimed at creating new pressure points within the European political landscape.
At the same time, the Kremlin manipulates the migratory crisis in the information sphere. Across the continent – from France and Italy to Germany and the Netherlands – Russia-linked media outlets, proxies, and influencers spread anti-immigrant narratives. These often feed directly into the talking points of far-right political movements, which have gained ground by portraying Europe as losing control of its borders and identity.
The ultimate goal is clear: not to resolve the crisis, but to exploit it. Every migrant boat landing in Lampedusa or Lesbos becomes a chance to deepen political divisions, stir public fears, and weaken pro-European leadership. The Kremlin doesn’t need to win hearts – it only needs to break consensus.
European intelligence services have increasingly recognised the role of Russian hybrid tactics in migration patterns. In 2024, Poland’s foreign minister openly warned that Moscow could soon establish a permanent military-logistics hub in Tobruk to control human flows into southern Europe. Similar concerns have been raised in Italy and within the European Council.
It is important to clarify: Russia is not the only cause of Europe’s migration issues. Global inequality, climate change, conflict, and demographic pressures are long-standing and complex. But what makes the current situation uniquely dangerous is the deliberate manipulation of these factors by a hostile state actor – turning natural crises into artificial weapons.
Ignoring this reality is no longer an option. Hybrid warfare seldom resembles traditional combat. Instead, it manifests as overloaded rescue boats, overcrowded reception centres, surging support for populist parties, and social media echo chambers filled with conspiracy theories. The EU faces not only a humanitarian dilemma but also a national security challenge.
So what should Europe do?
First, there must be a clear realisation that parts of this crisis are actively engineered. This is not just a matter of poor border management or slow asylum procedures – it is strategic sabotage. European border forces, particularly Frontex, must be strengthened, properly funded, and empowered to respond decisively to politically motivated surges.
Second, there must be renewed engagement with African nations – not from a position of neo-colonial control, but as equal partners. The aim must be to reduce Russian influence in key areas like Libya, Mali, and Sudan through diplomacy, investment, and long-term security cooperation.
Third, democratic societies must refuse to let the Kremlin set the tone of public discourse. Migration is a legitimate policy challenge, but it must not become a wedge issue exploited by foreign-backed actors. The EU and its member states must build resilience not only at their borders, but in their democracies – strengthening transparency, media literacy, and civic trust.
And finally, Europe must not lose sight of the larger conflict still unfolding in Ukraine. Every attempt by Moscow to destabilise the EU through migration is ultimately aimed at weakening the West’s resolve to support Ukraine’s sovereignty. The more distracted and divided Europe becomes at home, the greater Moscow’s freedom to act abroad.
We must understand the entire battlefield. The Kremlin’s strategy is not to win through force but to wear down, confuse, and divide its opponents until they cease to resist. In this context, boats filled with migrants do not represent a humanitarian crisis – they are deliberate acts of geopolitical coercion.
If Europe fails to connect the dots, it may lose more than control of its borders – it may lose the capacity to shape the future on its own terms.
