Photo by Nathan Dumlao on Unsplash
The UK has just experienced three by-elections, and the results are very bad for the Conservatives. Spin doctors from the three major parties are now hard at work.
Liberal Democrats have no need to spin. Having overturned a massive Conservative majority in the west of England they have now created a massive majority of their own. This used to be Liberal Democrat heartland before being decimated having been part of the Conservative coalition Government: it could be their heartland again at the next General election, and nearby Conservative seats are looking very vulnerable.
Labour is crowing about their sensational victory in Yorkshire, a seat they have never held before, with Prime Minister Sunak’s own seat at Richmond nearby. It was the second largest swing in UK political history. No seat in the north is now safe from the Labour advance.
Conservatives are contriving to take solace from just holding on to Boris Johnson’s old seat at Uxbridge, after a recount. Pundits agree that there were special circumstances: many Uxbridge commuters need to travel within the new Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) planned by London’s Labour Mayor Siddiq Khan, and the Tories made this a central plank in their local campaign. Interestingly ULEZ, and its steady expansion, was originally the brainchild of Boris Johnson himself, but true to his political form he has no problem in reversing his position completely when it suited. Meanwhile World Athletics President Sebastian Coe has reminded everyone that poor air quality in London means it may not qualify for consideration for future international athletics events. So ULEZ is unlikely to be dumped and Sunak cannot expect ULEZ unease to translate into more Conservative votes in future: it is unlikely to be an issue at the next General election because it is due to come into force next month, and the Mayor himself will either be re-elected or not in May next year.
In an unusual display of unity many senior Conservatives have rallied behind Sunak, saying it is not his fault. I suggest that it is.
Sunak initially was seen by his party as an asset: he was a break with the past, he was Mr Clean, and he was competent. As recently as June he had a +11-favourability rating among the party membership. This has all changed. The latest YouGov poll shows his net favourability has fallen to its lowest ever level, and almost two-thirds of all Britons have an unfavourable view. This is a major problem for the party, as the reasons are baked into Sunak’s own personality and performance.
He has failed to deal with the strikes, particularly Junior Doctors. Qualified staff continue to leave the NHS in droves and waiting lists, already far too long, are getting longer. The NHS is and will be a central issue over the coming year. His plea for the doctors to accept the independent pay review body recommendation is understandable: his comment that this would be ‘doing the right thing’ jarred horribly with the reality.
He has kept the extremist right-winger Suella Braverman in post despite her record because he dared not offend the European Research Group of anti-immigrants and anti-Europeans. His promise to stop the boats has had two unplanned successes: two large liners planned to house immigrants were denied docking facilities at Liverpool and Edinburgh. This should have been foreseen and was basic incompetence – but at least he stopped two boats….
He has announced a new Business Council to advise him on the needs of big companies. He has omitted to include any representatives of the Small and Medium Enterprise sector (SMEs) which provide the largest number of UK employers.
He has dithered on rejoining the EU Horizon programme, urgently needed if the UK is to become a science and research superpower, as he does not want to be seen to ‘give in too easily’ to the EU.
Above all, in the eyes of working people he is failing to address the cost-of-living crisis. They see him as not having the answers and not being aware he does not have the answers. By allowing interest rates to rise he has made the problem worse for many households. He is seen to be personally out of touch. Unable to use a credit card at a petrol station, moving around by private plane or helicopter rather than car or train, confirms to people that he is not inhabiting the same world.
Sunak has many fine qualities, but being a politician is not one of them. Sadly for the Conservatives, and indeed the country, the lack of alternative talent within the party is dire.
Sunak has promised to double-down on delivery but is stuck in a groove. The country is just stuck, but ready to move on. Try hard as he may Sunak is simply out of time.
