Photo by Randy Fath on Unsplash
Since the conflict in Sudan erupted on 15 April 2023, more than 150,000 people have died and 12 million have fled their homes in what the United Nations has called the world’s largest humanitarian crisis. International peace efforts have failed to truly launch, due to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), in particular their leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, refusing any path that does not result in outright victory for them and the dissolution of their opponents, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). How can Burhan be brought to the table?
Most recently Burhan has dismissed proposals including a US-led three-month truce, as well as a broader international ‘Quad’ roadmap. He insists that any resolution must preserve the SAF’s power while ruling out concessions or equal status for the RSF, a line that immediately indicates that negotiation and compromise are not on the menu. He even demands the dissolution of the RSF as a precondition for peace. Official statements from both the SAF and its allied Joint Force of Armed Movements in Darfur explicitly reject negotiations that treat RSF as a legitimate counterpart or equate it with government institutions.
The Sovereignty Council, led by the SAF, recently reiterated its rejection of any direct or indirect peace talks with the RSF, favouring a national solution that preserves state sovereignty and maintains military control. SAF’s refusal is combined with calls for national mobilisation and intensified military operations, particularly after regaining control of key regions such as Khartoum.
Burhan seems immune to international pressure, a trait that is surely irking those charged with peace-making in Washington, D.C. The SAF has formally refused to engage with the American and international ceasefire proposals, making no official move toward a truce even amid global pressure and the continued humanitarian crisis.
How long can Burhan and the SAF maintain this hardline stance against the ongoing peace process, rejecting both international mediation and direct negotiation with the RSF, and pushing for a military victory as the only possible solution to the conflict? It could be that they feel they have no choice, because the allies they depend upon require an outright victory. Those allies include an assortment of militias such as Darfuri ex-rebels and Islamists, some with ties to the former Bashir regime. There is an increasing belief among negotiating teams that Burhan cannot speak for himself or the SAF because he is constantly mindful of how beholden he is to the Islamist militias.
The recent capture of El-Fasher by the RSF means that they now hold Darfur and have consolidated control of nearly all of western Sudan. Commentators are increasing voicing their fears about de facto partition, with SAF forces holding Khartoum and the coastal Port Sudan. Each side likely believes they have an advantage. Certainly the RSF will feel that in capturing El-Fasher they have secured supply lines and upturned the SAF’s momentum. Meanwhile the SAF control the power centres of Port Sudan and Khartoum and enjoy a healthy supply of weapons from Iran and Turkey.
An emboldening factor for Burhan in his refusal to negotiate is undoubtedly the support that the SAF receives from Iran. The SAF have relied on Iranian military support over 2024 and 2025. This reliance is documented through weapon shipments, drone operations, intelligence support, and diplomatic coordination, especially following the restoration of formal ties between Khartoum and Tehran in late 2023. Iran is not alone in providing Burhan and his allies. Turkey is also a prolific supplier. The SAF’s use of Iranian and Turkish drones was instrumental in allowing the SAF’s recapture of Khartoum from RSF forces earlier in 2025. Disrupting and denying the SAF further arms shipments, intelligence, and financial support from major backers like Iran and Turkey would weaken their military position and credibility, pushing Burhan to consider a negotiated outcome.
International peace-makers, from the United States to the broader Quad, clearly sense that this is the moment to push for peace before a partition of Sudan becomes entrenched. Unlocking Burhan’s resistance has never been more crucial.
