Photo by Martin Krchnacek on Unsplash
As the Czech Republic prepares for parliamentary elections on 3–4 October 2025, the country faces a pivotal moment in both foreign and domestic policy. Andrej Babiš, former prime minister and leader of the right-wing populist ANO party, which currently tops the polls, has declared his intention to halt a key initiative supplying ammunition to Ukraine if he regains power. Speaking to Politico on 16 September, Babiš asserted that the initiative is too costly for Czech taxpayers and that the funds should instead be allocated to our people.
The Czech ammunition initiative, launched in 2024 in response to delayed military aid from the United States, has become crucial to Ukraine’s defence capabilities. At a time when Russia was receiving supplies from Iran and North Korea, Prague coordinated the procurement and delivery of large-calibre ammunition through a coalition of 14 countries. Last year alone, the initiative delivered 1.5 million shells; this year, 1.8 million are planned. Babiš’s remarks now threaten to undo this lifeline at a critical moment.
Although Babiš frames his stance as a matter of fiscal responsibility, his rhetoric echoes that of other European right-wing populists who call for peace at any cost and seek to reduce military support to Kyiv. His comments have clear political undertones: nearly half of Czech voters, according to a STEM poll, believe the country is giving too much aid to Ukraine. With this message, Babiš both energises his voter base and challenges the pro-European foreign policy of the current government.
Should ANO win the election and form a coalition with smaller parties, some of which have clear pro-Russian and Eurosceptic agendas, such as SPD, Stačilo! or Motoristé Sobě, the Czech Republic risks a major shift in its international identity. In recent years, Prague has positioned itself as a reliable NATO ally, a leader in climate action, and a key supporter of Ukraine. Abandoning this role in favour of an isolationist agenda would not only reduce military assistance to Kyiv but also undermine the unity of the European Union on critical security issues. The Kremlin, undoubtedly, would welcome such a development.
Another concern is the potential operational disruption if Prague relinquishes its role as coordinator of the ammunition initiative. Transferring this responsibility to another country would require time and resources, delays that Ukraine, under constant military pressure, cannot afford. Any slowdown in ammunition supplies could directly jeopardise the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces on the front line.
Implementing Babiš’s pledge would also align him with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, leaders whose pro-Russian viewpoints have already strained EU unity. This could harm Babiš’s reputation within the EU and reduce the Czech Republic’s influence in Brussels. Additionally, considering the country’s history of the Soviet invasion in 1968, rejecting support for Ukraine, a nation resisting the same aggressor, would be viewed by many as a betrayal of Czech historical memory.
It is also telling that ANO has aligned itself in the European Parliament with the hard-right group Patriots for Europe, launched by Viktor Orbán and supported by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, Austria’s Freedom Party, Spain’s Vox, and Poland’s Confederation. This political family actively promotes EU fragmentation, opposes the Green Deal, and champions cultural identity politics. Many of its members have been linked by European media to funding from the Kremlin.
Security implications must not be overlooked. The Czech Security and Intelligence Service (BIS) has repeatedly warned of Russian attempts to influence Czech politics through cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and financial backing for sympathetic politicians. Russian influence networks, including media outlets like Voice of Europe, have already been identified as instruments of anti-Ukrainian propaganda and anti-NATO messaging.
These elections are not merely about domestic governance– they will also influence the regional and European landscape. If pro-Russian and Eurosceptic forces come to power, this could cool relations between Prague and Brussels, weaken the EU’s united response to Russia, and threaten the European integration of Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans. Expecting such a shift, Czech President Petr Pavel has already started consultations with party leaders to maintain national security and stability in foreign policy.
Conversely, if the SPOLU coalition succeeds in staying in power, the Czech Republic’s pro-European direction will stay secure. Military support for Ukraine will persist, sanctions against Putin’s regime will be maintained, and Prague will continue to be actively involved in EU policymaking, including climate action and cyber security. The government will also uphold a strong stance against Russian and Chinese disinformation campaigns.
In the choice between short-term populist gains and long-term strategic responsibility, the Czech Republic now finds itself at a crossroads. It must decide whether to remain a frontline defender of European values, or risk losing the trust of its allies by turning away from a shared commitment to peace, democracy, and collective security.
