On 15-16 June 2024, a high-level conference on peace in Ukraine will be held in Switzerland. The event aims to create a favourable basis for a comprehensive and lasting peace in Ukraine, as well as to develop a roadmap for Russia’s participation in the peace process.
There is currently sufficient international support for the organisation of the peace conference. Most of the world’s leading powers, including the United States and China, have agreed to participate in its work. Russia, as an aggressor and terrorist country, is not invited to the conference. However, if it takes a more constructive stance, it may be invited to subsequent summits of a similar nature.
In November 2022, President of Ukraine V. Zelenskyy proposed the Peace Formula, which has found huge support worldwide and is the best way to end the war based on Ukraine’s interests. Through the Peace Formula, Ukraine is demonstrating to the world its desire to end the war based on international law and universal values. The ten principles of the Ukrainian Formula for Peace are well known, and as the conference approaches, the relevance of their correct understanding and prospects for implementation is increasing:
– Radiation and nuclear safety. Demilitarisation of Zaporizhzhya NPP – withdrawal of Russian troops, and control of the plant by the IAEA and Ukrainian personnel. Connecting the plant to the Ukrainian power grid;
– Food security. An indefinite extension of Ukraine’s grain export initiative. It should not depend on the timing of the end of the war;
– Energy security. Sending a mission of UN experts to the damaged facilities of Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure. Russia’s refusal to strike at Ukrainian power generation. Imposing price restrictions on Russian energy resources so that they are not used as a weapon;
– Release of all prisoners and deportees. The “all for all” model;
– Russia’s compliance with the UN Charter and restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and world order. Russia’s confirmation of this through UN General Assembly resolutions and a set of treaty and legal documents;
– Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities. This includes all regular troops and other armed formations. Restoration of Ukraine’s control over all sections of the state border;
– Justice. Establishment of a special tribunal for the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine, as well as an international mechanism for compensation for damages from Russian assets;
– Ecocide. Creation of a platform for damage assessment. Scaling up demining. Raising funds and technologies to restore damaged treatment facilities;
– Preventing escalation. Effective security guarantees for Ukraine;
– Fixing the end of the war. After all the necessary anti-war steps are taken, the parties sign the relevant document.
However, in the current situation, the Ukrainian Peace Formula cannot actually be implemented in practice. The provisions of the Peace Formula completely contradict the plans and intentions of Russia, which will do everything possible to prevent its implementation.
Thus, Russia agrees only to a temporary “freezing” of the war on its terms, the main points of which are
– Russia’s retention of the occupied territories and recognition of their belonging to Russia;
– Ukraine’s abandonment of the course of European and Euro-Atlantic integration and proclamation of a neutral status;
– A radical reduction of the Ukrainian armed forces and the withdrawal of heavy equipment from their armoury;
– A ceasefire at the front without specific commitments from Russia;
– The introduction of Russian as the second official language in Ukraine and other bondage demands.
Even the beginning of any negotiations with no results will be interpreted in the Kremlin as “achieving the goals of the SMO” and thus as its “victory”. However, in reality, Russia’s goal is only to gain additional time and create favourable opportunities to build up its military potential, improve its armed forces and solve the economic problems that have arisen because of external sanctions. After that, Russia will attack Ukraine again with the aim of its final destruction as an independent state.
It is most likely that the High-Level Conference on Peace in Ukraine will not lead to a quick end to the war or at least to the start of a peace process. The reason for this is again the position of Russia, which will not comply with iany resolutions or calls. At the same time, the very fact of holding a high-level conference, and even more so, the consideration of a plan to end the war initiated by Ukraine in the form of the Peace Formula, are and will be important, and will obviously be supported by the majority of the conference participants.
