The strategic goal of the military operation of the Russian leadership in Ukraine is not just the subjugation of a neighbouring state, but the satisfaction of the ambitions of Kremlin chauvinists to seize the historical heritage of Kyivan Rus.
For several centuries, Kyiv has been assigned the role of a “younger brother”, who, according to the elder sister of Moscow, “cannot properly equip his house”, and even stopped not only listening to the Kremlin, but also paying tribute to him.
In 2014, Ukraine boarded up the east-facing windows and flung open the doors in the western part of its house, which frightened Putin so much that he decided to annex first the Crimean peninsula, and then part of the land in eastern Ukraine. However, Kyiv did not change its beliefs and continued its course towards democracy, which finally convinced Moscow that the “younger brother” had gone astray.
Confident in his calculations, on February 24, Putin invaded, surprised at the same time that nobody gave him a warm welcome, and that Ukrainian girls did not come to the roadside with flowers, to welcome the Russian tanks.
Having completely miscalculated the situation in the Ukrainian army, the Russian leader, in his address to the Russians on the eve of the invasion, called on the Ukrainian military to take power into their own hands. He was sure that the Kremlin’s agents were deployed not only at all levels of the military command of Ukraine, but in almost every battalion, platoon or company.
Putin was counting on the rapid advance of small battalion tactical groups that would create gaps in the defensive lines and allow elements of the Ukrainian armed forces to be surrounded. A wave of despair and hopelessness would take over the rest of the units, which would quickly surrender. At the same time, Mariupol, Odessa, Kharkiv and Kherson would welcome Russian soldiers as their liberators from Ukrainian “nationalists”, and Kyiv would fall in the first days of the blitzkrieg.
He was sure that Ukraine could be captured in the shortest possible time and with minimal losses. And this was his first mistake, in overestimating his resources and failing to correctly assess the potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the unprecedented surge of patriotism of the Ukrainian people.
The Russian units are bogged down, the Ukrainians are repulsing their attacks, heavy fighting is going on for every city. The Russians abandon military equipment due to lack of fuel, the commanders themselves shoot the wounded, some of the dead soldiers are burned in mobile crematoria, which move behind the Russian army, or simply abandoned. Apart from his communist sycophants in China, nobody believes Putin’s propaganda and Russia has become an outcast in the eyes of the entire civilised world.
The second mistake that Putin made was failing to predict the rallying of the Ukrainian people around Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom the head of the Kremlin dismissed as an actor, unable to prove himself in wartime. But Zelensky, despite the proposals of the United States and a number of Western countries, did not flee the country, but, like all Ukrainians, began to fight for his homeland. Now he can only envy the growing popularity of Zelensky, who has more than 90 percent popular support in Ukraine and cannot be replaced by a Kremlin puppet under any circumstances.
The third miscalculation of Putin was the unexpectedly harsh reaction of Western European countries. For many years, the Kremlin has invested heavily in building a network of agents of its influence among European politicians, both by investing in big businesses, providing discounts on energy resources, and simply buying up the political favour of the leaders of individual countries. In 2021, the strength of Western European states was even tested when Lukashenko, with the support of Putin, staged an immigration crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border. For a moment, Poland and Lithuania were left alone to face this problem, which gave Putin confidence in the lack of cooperation between European countries.
The head of the Kremlin believed that they would not be able to find a consensus on the “Ukrainian issue” either and would rush to protect their economic interests to the detriment of universal human values. He decided that he had calculated everything well. Thus, the attack on Ukraine was scheduled for Thursday, February 24 in the belief that Europe would not be able to quickly respond to the invasion. Friday would be a short working day, and on Saturday the Europeans would be busy with their household chores. By Sunday evening, Kyiv should have already collapsed under the blows of the second most powerful army in the world, and on Monday a Kremlin-appointed puppet would have taken an oath of allegiance to the occupiers in the new role as the replacement Ukrainian president. Europe would simply be faced with regime change in Ukraine as a fait accompli.
Putin’s calculation was that sanctions as an instrument of deterrence would be meaningless, based on his many years’ experience of toothless European actions. Sanctions that would have really hurt Putin and his entourage after the occupation of Crimea, the seizure of territories in eastern Ukraine, the downing of the Boeing MH-17, the poisoning of the Russian opposition leader Navalny, never happened. So, to his incredible amazement, the West was not only ready to unite in the fight against the Kremlin, but also very decisively. Ukraine has received material and political support from the whole world, Russia has found itself severely blocked, with no obvious escape route.
However Putin still has a few more tricks up his sleeve, which he counts on and is attempting to show to the whole world that he is not bluffing. From time to time he rubs the red button of the nuclear suitcase. Putin has stated that he is ready to use nuclear weapons, after which “the Russians will go to heaven as martyrs, and the rest of the nations will simply die.” He also has in his blackmail toolkit control of Ukrainian nuclear power plants, and the use of chemical weapons against Ukraine cannot be ruled out. A cornered beast is a dangerous animal, and the next steps are unpredictable.
