There are five defined crisis tribes across Europe’s voting population, and concerns about climate change and immigration will be key mobilising issues for citizens in the run-up to the European Parliament elections and other major ballots in Europe in 2024, according to a new polling-backed study published today by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
The ECFR study, “A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year”, is underpinned by YouGov, Datapraxis and Norstat public opinion polling from nine EU member states (Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania and Spain), plus two non-EU member states (Great Britain and Switzerland).
This dataset, which comprises countries that account for 75% of the EU’s total population, provides a representative snapshot of attitudes and concerns within the bloc and how key issues could influence this year’s series of European and national elections.
The authors of the study, and leading political scientists, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, argue that the traditional voting constituencies of Europe, hitherto defined by the left and right and pro and anti-EU stances, are now heavily fragmented from five crises that have rocked the EU in recent years.
They contend that the trauma afflicted from these shocks – climate change, COVID-19, immigration, the cost-of-living, and war on Europe’s eastern border – have become an important predicter of behaviour.
Krastev and Leonard have used ECFR’s latest dataset of public opinion to identify five distinct ‘tribes’, which are best defined by their views towards five crises that have directly impacted citizens of the EU-27 over the past fifteen years.
They have also estimated the size of these constituencies in the upcoming 2024 elections to the European Parliament:
Key findings:
* Those that view climate change as the single most important crisis impacting their future – 74 million voters;
* Those that view the COVID-19 pandemic as the single most important crisis impacting their future – 73 million voters;
* Those that view global economic turmoil as the single most important crisis impacting their future – 70 million voters;
* Those that view immigration as the single most important crisis impacting their future – 59 million voters;
* Those that view Russia’s war against Ukraine as the single most important crisis impacting their future – 49 million voters;
* There is also a smaller group, of 47 million voters, that do not associate with any of the five crises, or simply did not know how to respond to this question.
They note that these voting-issue constituencies are not confined to a single nation, nor evenly distributed throughout Europe.
For instance, in Germany, ECFR’s dataset shows that immigration stands well clear as the main issue for voters, while, in France and Denmark, the single most important crisis is climate change.
In Italy and Portugal, countries that have been scarred by past economic crises, this legacy still resonates, to the point that it dominates all other issues.
And, given their country’s proximity to the conflict zone, it is perhaps unsurprising to find that the citizens most focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine are found in Estonia, Poland, and Denmark.
