Photo by Benjamin Huggett on Unsplash
Ukrainian air defence forces have demonstrated over the past 6 days that they can repel combined massive missile attacks by Russia. The Ukrainian military assessed the arsenal, types of ammunition and volume of Russian strikes on 1-2 January and compared it to the strikes on 29 December 2023. During the 1-2 January attack, Ukrainian forces destroyed more Shakhed drones and Kinzhal missiles than they did on 29 December. This shows that Ukrainian air defence adapted to the combined attacks that Russians used on 29 December. The West’s provision of air defence equipment to Ukraine and months of experimentation and testing of Ukrainian air defence using various weapon systems facilitated this.
If Western support decreases, Ukraine may be forced to limit the use of its air defence missiles to protect critical installations. This would likely lead to the opening of critical sections of the frontline if Ukraine is forced to withdraw air defence systems to protect important population centres.
Today, finding an alternative to funding and military aid from the EU and the US is impossible. Ukraine is cut off from international capital markets, and the budgets of other partners do not have such significant funds to support Ukrainians.
Without assistance from Western partners, the result of the fighting in Ukraine will not be a continuation of the current positional war, but rather the opening of opportunities for the Russians to resume large-scale mechanised offensives and with prospects for success. The front lines would no longer be static, and the Russian army could once again move deep into Ukraine and further west of the country.
The West needs a new long-term strategy to help Ukraine, one that assumes that the return of the occupied territories will be possible after some and probably even a long period, will require several stages of preparation, but will remain a priority strategic goal for both Ukraine and the West.
The war’s outcome now depends almost entirely on what financial and military assistance the Western allies will provide Ukraine. If this assistance is sufficient and Ukraine can overcome the shortage of military personnel, it will be able to impose its game on Russia in the spring.
