Photo by Marek Studzinski on Unsplash
Recent initiatives by U.S. President Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine through dialogue, rather than through Russia’s defeat on the battlefield, present Moscow with a unique opportunity to break free from its strategic deadlock. While Russia projects confidence in its strength, it is increasingly aware that continuing the war against Ukraine undermines its long-term strategic position. Even among the most ardent supporters of President Vladimir Putin’s regime, there is growing concern over the rapid depletion of Russia’s economic and human resources. Ordinary Russians, facing rising living costs, are questioning the feasibility and rationality of the war’s objectives.
In contrast, the prospect of lifting sanctions and restoring economic and trade relations with the West resonates favourably among Russia’s elite, especially those close to Putin. The possibility of re-engagement with the global economy offers Russia an escape from its current isolation.
A significant turning point in these developments came on February 18, when Russian and American delegations reportedly met in Saudi Arabia. The focus of these talks likely included joint energy projects in the Arctic and the exploration of rare earth metal reserves within Russia. Additionally, on March 2, the Financial Times revealed ongoing negotiations between Russia and the United States concerning the future use of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to supply natural gas to Europe. While Matthias Warnig, former head of Nord Stream 2 AG, has denied these talks, the involvement of U.S. special envoy Richard Grenell and the secrecy surrounding such sensitive discussions leaves room for speculation.
The prospect of resuming Russian gas supplies to Europe could appeal not only to the U.S. and Russia, but also to European leaders. Despite EU ambitions to phase out Russian energy by 2027, Russian gas still accounts for 15-20% of the European market. If American businesses gain control over the pipeline, and possibly even participate in Russian gas extraction, Washington could assert that U.S. mediation guarantees the reliability of Russia as a partner.
The uncertainty surrounding the scope of U.S. financial and military involvement in European security, particularly under Trump’s administration, has created an opening for European countries -especially Germany – to reconsider their stance on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Though the September 2022 explosions damaged the pipeline, leaving only one operational line, its capacity is sufficient to meet European demand for Russian gas, thus diminishing Ukraine’s role as a transit route for both Russian and Caspian gas.
However, pursuing peace with Putin through economic cooperation might be a double-edged sword. In exchange for distancing itself from Beijing amidst escalating U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan, Russia could demand Ukraine’s capitulation. Yielding to this demand would allow Moscow to reap both political and economic benefits, notably within Europe, while shedding the humiliating dependence on Chinese financial support.
Such a development would not only shift the balance of power within Europe but also have significant implications for China. While Chinese officials have expressed support for any efforts aimed at peace, Beijing is likely to view Russia’s rapprochement with the U.S. as a betrayal. Moreover, as many in Russia’s elite maintain significant financial ties with China, a potential palace coup-echoing the missteps of Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin-seems increasingly plausible.
This geopolitical shift poses a crucial challenge not only for the U.S. and Russia but also for European policymakers, who must navigate the delicate balance of energy security, economic cooperation, and geopolitical alignment.
