In just mere weeks, the moment of truth for Georgia will set things straight, as the country suits up to make its existential choice for the civilised future. The people will cast their vote in the historical election that is set to define the country’s fate for decades to come, writes Viktor Sparov.
On October 26, oligarch Ivanishvili’s “Russian dream” for Georgia might come to its end.
At the same time, the father of the Georgian dream Mikheil Saakashvili, Putin’s imprisoned nemesis, may finally walk free as the opposition prevails in the election. In the foreseeable future, he will probably run for president, as the legislation demands the new president is elected no later than 45 days after the new parliament’s assembly; this may well be one of the most outlandish comebacks in modern history. Twenty-one years in the making, this can happen again.
Sure, at the moment, in early October, such an outcome feels like something magical. But the people of Georgia believe in this Georgian miracle. And the people want it to become a reality. According to polls, the Georgians are convinced the country should be run by the pro-Western democratic forces, not the proxies of the Kremlin. 71% of the population believes it’s time for the new party at the wheel. 62% of the respondents are in favour of the pro-European opposition parties’ coalition: Unity, Coalition for Change, Strong Georgia, For Georgia, (Gakharia), Georgian Labor Party, Girchi (Iago Khvichia).
What it means is that Georgia now has a historic chance to leave the Russian orbit – where Ivanishvili and his “Russian Dream” firmly placed the country – and form the democratic, pro-Western government.
Recent poll results are neither a mistake, nor a coincidence. One can see what the Georgian nation really wants judging by the spring riots against the “Russian law” (on the foreign agents).
The country has a truly fantastic opportunity on their hands, but it’s obvious now that Ivanishvili is eyeing the use of force if his plans fail. His party’s already threatening to employ repressive methods to the opposition post-elections, namely the ban of United National Movement and, quoting Ivanishvili, some “Nuremberg trials”.
Basically, Ivanishvili and his goons tell the country to brace for totalitarianism and the fate of the Russian colony, with a political landscape designed in accordance with the Russian blueprint. His rhetoric about European choice and return of Ossetia – the Georgians are expected to apologise to for some reason – is nothing but a mouthful of pre-election verbal manure. Art of trickery and deceit. Back in late-June, the EU leaders made it known that Georgia’s ambition to join the European Union is on indefinite hold. The same applies to NATO – Georgia is a no go. It is obvious why Ivanishvili wears out this rhetoric: the majority of the Georgians want to be a part of NATO and EU, not Russia and CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization). By the end of 2023, 79% of those polled by NDI and CRRC were in favour of Georgia joining the EU, with 67% rooting for their country as a NATO member.
However, it’s clear as day that Ivanishvili wants none of that civilised western future for Georgia – neither can he deliver it. Should he lose the elections, all he’s left with is the use of force to try and keep his chair. The Russian intelligence claims the U.S. intend to meddle with the votes is nothing but the proof it is the Russians who are dead set to interfere. Not only politically, technologically and financially, but with brute force.
It’s crucial that the opposition, caught in this tricky situation, has the brain power, resources and the influence to resist the oppressors, coordinate and organise all the forward-thinking forces, whilst effectively cooperating with the West. First of all, we’re talking about Koba Nakopia, Chairman of the Political Council of the United National Movement, one of Saakashvili’s closest supporters; this man’s input in bringing the Georgian opposition together doesn’t get enough credit. His loyalty to Mikheil is second to none, too: Nakopia stuck by Saakashvili through thick and thin, during the latter’s work in Ukraine, and upon his return to Georgia.
Obviously, one of the key reasons behind this political success is the support of the public and business. Also, it’s become apparent that Georgian entrepreneurs are at the risk of physical retaliation for supporting the forward-thinking political forces. The incumbent Georgian rulers borrow the worst practices from their Russian handlers.
Nakopia managed not only secure the return of the key politicians to Georgia, but made sure the international businesses located in Georgia stand behind the ideology of the opposition; among the most affluent supporters are Davit Kezerashvili, who made the electoral list, and Tamaz Somkhishvili. These two businessmen are more than just an ATM to fund the operation, but the eloquent and experienced communicators in the countries of interest. The vital allies of Georgia are the UK, U.S., and Ukraine.
Both Kezerashvili and Somkhishvili hold British passports and are on good terms with the officials, especially in Ukraine since Mikheil Saakashvili’s tenure at Odesa State Regional Administration.
What matters is that both Somkhishvili and Kezerashvili are backed by strong international teams, both in Georgia and elsewhere. Number 12 on the UNM’s ballot is Ramaz Nikolaishvili, former deputy of Kezerashvili, who used to be Georgia’s Minister of Defense; №27 on the same list – Zaza Gogava, former Chief of Joint Staff of the Armed Forces.
At the same time, Davit Kirkitadze, №26, is a well-rounded protégé of Tamaz Somkhishvili. In 2008, Kirkitadze was elected Governor of Kvemo Kartli region, centered in Rustavi that houses the city’s main enterprise, Rusaloy ferroalloys plant – an asset Tamaz Somkhishvili’s attached to. In 2021, Kirkitadze lost the Rustavi mayoral elections by a measly 1%, which is a staggering result in itself, for it’s clear some administrative interference took place.
Both Kezerashvili and Somkhishvili, under Koba Nakopia’s coordination, assisted Mikheil Saakashvili when he was governor of Odesa Oblast in Ukraine and backed Mikheil Nikolozovich’s reform efforts under the new Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. And, perhaps because of Mikheil’s support and pro-Ukrainian stance, both entrepreneurs were affected by defamatory media campaigns and attacks on their businesses in Ukraine. In particular, Kezerashvili was accused of controlling Milton Group’s Ukrainian call centres, allegedly engaged in fraud. Though no paper trail was ever made public, no criminal cases were opened by either Ukrainian or European law enforcement agencies, and no charges were filed.
Even more extensive and increasingly absurd was the smearing campaign against Tamaz Somkhishvili, launched by the corrupt officials of Kyiv city hall, funded and directed from Moscow. In a nutshell, Somkhishvili, who had previously invested around $30m in the city’s infrastructural project, was first robbed and then, as Somkhishvili took to court to stand his ground, multiple fake articles and rumours were spread across media, alleging Somkhishvili’s privately owned aerospace manufacturer TAM Management ties with Russia. All that despite the enterprise’s time-tested cooperation with Ukrainian defense industry, Ukroboronprom.
However, what can really attest to the biased and fictitious attempts to smear the Georgian businessmen is the simple fact they were never put on the sanctions list. Both Somkhishvili and Kezerashvili are well-regarded in Kyiv, London, D.C. The British Embassy diplomats present at the court hearings in Kyiv is something that speaks for itself. Last but not least, those fighting for the free, independent Georgia are always welcome at the Office of the President of Ukraine.
If we go back and take a look at the state of affairs on the eve of the fateful elections, we can’t help but bring up the long-lasting ties of Tamaz Somkhishvili to the Georgian Orthodox Church. The businessman enjoys a long-standing friendship with the Rector of the Tbilisi Theological Academy and Seminary, Protopresbyter Giorgi Zviadadze. The son of the Protopresbyter, former head of the Association of Small and Medium Enterprises of Georgia and the Innovation Agency of Georgia, Giorgi Zviadadze Jr. is today the Vice-President of Somkhishvili’s parent holding.
The great significance of these bonds can be hardly overestimated, since the authority of the Church in Georgia has historically been strong. That is why Ivanishvili, prior to the elections, attempted to seize control of the GOC by declaring Orthodoxy the state religion and amending the country’s constitution accordingly. This blatantly illegal initiative sparked a strong response from the opposition. On August 29, Mikheil Saakashvili said that Ivanishvili plans to “destroy the only institution that remained outside his full control”, the Georgian Orthodox Church, and to solely appoint and dismiss the patriarch and bishops. On September 1, Giorgi Zviadadze, on behalf of the Patriarchate, handed over to the Georgian Prime Minister the written position of the GOC calling for maintaining the independence of the Church and preserving the current Constitutional Agreement.
The fact that UNM electoral lists include such political heavyweights, supported by the Church and international partners, is nothing but a good sign. Georgia’s friends wish to see the country free from oppression, and are set to back the Georgians in their fight for independence and sovereignty. On October 26, Georgia will make a momentous decision. This is, quite literally, the choice between good and evil, the choice between past and future. With the clock counting down the hours before the fateful and decisive day for the nation, it is of vital importance that such open communications with international partners prevail.
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The Author is Viktor Sparov, an independent writer and occasional contributor to EU Political Report. This article first appeared in EU Reporter and is republished here with the author’s permission.
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